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撤县设区调整影响土地财政的实证分析

时间:2019-06-12 来源:未知 作者:依依 本文字数:6568字

  摘要

  撤县设区调整自其诞生以来就一直受到社会的关注和学界的研究,在结合其他研究的基础上,我们发现现有研究将撤县设区调整带来的政策影响主要归结于两点,即城市空间扩张和市县级政府权力调整。但是由于现有研究也有两个不足之处:一、探讨主要停留在理论分析层面,二、大量案例的负面影响效果又似乎与不断兴起的撤县设区热潮相矛盾。所以作者以撤县设区设区前后城市的土地出让价格和城市政府拥有土地资源作为观察变量,观察撤县设区对城市政府的土地财政影响,同时也是对政策效果的一个补充。

  本文以土地财政资源作为典型代表,观察撤县设调整给市级政府的土地财政权力和资源(主要指土地出让相关权限和土地出让金)带来的影响。当然以土地财政权力和资源作为典型代表的原因还在于政府本身对土地财政资源扩张的冲动性,以及市级政府在撤县设区调整下扩张土地财政的可行性。这个可能主要通过以下两点实现,其一,在权限调整背景下,城市政府通过撤县设区集中了外围县的土地财政相关权限,实现了其所控制的土地财政资源扩张。其二,在城市土地出让价格“中心-外围”分布格局下——主城区土地出让价格高,外围区土地出让价低,外围区域的土地出让价格通常是中心区域的底价标准,将外围县撤县设区转化城市的新辖区后,无疑为城市的原有区域的所有土地增加了一道外围圈层的土地价格参考,刷新了主城区土地出让的基础底价,带来主城区范围内土地出让价格标准的抬升。

  作者首先利用城市面板数据,以撤县设区和城市区域土地出让收入分别为政策变量和因变量,通过双向固定效应模型进行回归分析,发现撤县设区确实带来城市主城区土地出让收入的确显著上升,而且通过对出让土地的用途进行细分之后发现,撤县设区主要带来了城市住宅用地出让收入的增加。接着文章对撤县设区引起土地出让收入上升的原因进行机制分析,通过本文研究我们发现在长期情况下撤县设区后市级政府能够通过平稳回收土地审批等相关权限获得土地财政资源的扩张,从而扩张土地出让收入;而在短期情形下,撤县设区主要通过第二种路径影响城市土地价格。作者以土地出让价格为因变量,以撤县设区为政策变量进行双向固定效应回归,结果显示撤县设区显著提高了城市主城区范围内以住宅用地为主的土地出让价格。接着作者对撤县设区产生带来土地出让价格增长的原因进行逻辑分析,利用城市主城区和撤设新区之间的土地价格数据构建面板var 模型。通过 var 模型证明当外围区的住宅用地出让价格标准抬高时确实能带来主城区的住宅土地出让价格标准抬高。最后以县(县级市)是否被选择撤县设区为被解释变量,以 07 到 11 年县的平均数据为解释变量建立多元回归模型,发现当县的土地出让价格越高时,其被选择为撤县设区目标的可能性越高。通过以上的实证,我们发现城市政府利用撤县设区改革影响主城区土地出让价格是通过以下这一条路径:将土地出让价格较高的县或县级市转化为市辖区,在城市土地价格“中心-外围”的分布格局下以外围区的出让价格为主城区区域内的土地设立一个较高的出让价格下限标准,从而带来主城区内土地出让均价的普遍上涨。

  通过本文研究我们发现在长期情况下,撤县设区将县转为区,市县关系转化为市区关系,使得市级政府能够通过回收土地审批等相关权限获得土地财政资源的扩张;在短期情形下,通过撤县设区塑造城市新的土地价格分布格局,通过确定城市外围土地出让价格的确立,推动中心区域土地出让价格标准的上升带来城市土地收入的最终增长。

  关键词:撤县设区;土地财政;土地出让价格

财政学硕士论文

  ABSTRACT

  The Setting County to District has been concerned by the society and theacademic circles since its birth However, from the whole process of academicresearch, we find that the existing research mainly attributes the policy impact of theadjustment of setting districts by withdrawing counties to two points, namely, theexpansion of urban space and the adjustment of power of municipal and Countygovernments However, there are two shortcomings in the existing research: first, thediscussion mainly stays at the level of theoretical analysis; second, the negativeeffects of a large number of cases seem to contradict the rising upsurge ofwithdrawing counties and establishing districts Therefore, the author takes the landtransfer price and the land resources owned by the city government before and afterthe withdrawal of counties and districts as observation variables to observe the impactof the withdrawal of counties and districts on the land finance of the city government,which is also a supplement to the policy effect

  This paper takes the land financial resources as a typical representative toobserve the impact of The Setting County to District on the land financial power andresources of municipal governments (mainly referring to the relevant authority of landtransfer and land transfer funds) Of course, the reason for the typical representationof land financial power and resources lies in the impulse of the government itself toexpand land financial resources, and the feasibility of the municipal government toexpand land finance under the adjustment of withdrawing counties and establishingdistricts This may be achieved mainly through the following two points Firstly,under the background of authority adjustment, the city government centralized theland finance related authority of peripheral counties by withdrawing counties andsetting up districts, and realized the expansion of land financial resources  Secondly,under the distribution pattern of "center-periphery" of urban land transfer price, theland transfer price of the main urban area is high, the land transfer price of theperiphery area is low, and the land transfer price of the periphery area is usually thebase price standard of the central area After the withdrawal of the periphery countiesand the establishment of districts into the new jurisdiction of the city, there is no doubtthat a periphery layer of land has been added to all the land in the original area of thecity Price reference refreshes the basic base price of land transfer in the main urban area, and brings up the standard of land transfer price in the main urban area

  Firstly, the author uses the urban panel data to analyze the policy variables anddependent variables of land transfer income in the withdrawal of counties and urbanareas respectively Through the regression analysis of the two-way fixed effect model,the author finds that the withdrawal of counties and districts really brings about asignificant increase in land transfer income in the main urban areas of the city

  Furthermore, after subdividing the use of land transfer, the author finds that thewithdrawal of counties and districts mainly brings about the increase of land transferincome Increase in income from urban residential land transfer Then, the paperanalyses the mechanism of the increase of land transfer income caused by thewithdrawal of counties and districts, and finds that in the long run, after thewithdrawal of counties and districts, the municipal government can obtain theexpansion of land financial resources through the smooth recovery of land approvaland other related authority, thus expanding land transfer income; in the short run, thewithdrawal of counties and districts mainly through the second path Sounds the cityland price The author takes the land transfer price as dependent variable and thewithdrawal of counties and districts as policy variable to carry out bidirectional fixedeffect regression The results show that the withdrawal of counties and districtssignificantly increases the land transfer price of residential land in the main urban area

  Then the author makes a logical analysis of the reasons for the increase of landtransfer price caused by the withdrawal of counties and districts, and constructs apanel VAR model based on the land price data between the main urban area and thenew urban area The VAR model proves that when the price standard of residentialland transfer in the peripheral area rises, it can indeed bring the price standard ofresidential land transfer in the main urban area to rise Finally, a multiple regressionmodel is established based on the average data of counties from 07 to 11 years It isfound that the higher the land transfer price of a county is, the more likely it is to beselected as the goal of county withdrawal Through the above empirical research, wefind that the urban government uses the reform of withdrawing counties and settingup districts to influence the land transfer price in the main urban area through thefollowing path: transforming the county or county-level cities with higher landtransfer price into municipal districts, and setting up a higher land transfer price in theperiphery of the main urban area under the distribution pattern of "center-periphery"of urban land price The lower limit standard brings about a general increase in the average price of land transfer in the main urban area

  Through this paper, we find that the municipal government can obtain the landfinancial resources through the relevant authority such as land remising in the longrun, with the relationship between cities and counties will be transformed into therelationship between cities and district; In short-term, the government get the finalgrowth of urban land incom by promoting the rising of land transfer price standard inthe central region The Setting County to District shape a new distribution pattern ofurban land prices, the land transfer price standard in the central region will raisethrough the determination of the transfer price of urban periphery land

  Key words: County-to-Distrcit Reform; land finance; land price

  目录

  一 绪论

  1.1研究的背景

  撤县设区行政区划调整政策自诞生以来就一直受到地方政府的追崇,在近些年来我国每年都有 10 多个城市进行撤县设区调整,截至 2016 年全国已有三分之一的城市进行过撤县设区调整。部分省会城市或者其他区域核心城市对撤县设区调整尤其热衷,往往在几年时间内进行多次撤县设区调整。在经过 2013 年溧水县和高淳县的撤县设区之后,南京市前后共进行了 5 次撤县设区调整,成为了拥有 11 个市辖区的无管辖县地级市,市区面积达 662245 平方公里已超过了直辖市上海的 6340 平方公里;杭州市在经过 2000 年的萧山市和余杭市撤县设区调整之后,又在 2014 年和 2017 年相继通过撤县设区调整并入了富阳市和临安市;河北多个城市更是在一年之内实行多次撤县设区调整,如 2014 年内石家庄市调整了栾城县、藁城市、鹿泉市,保定市在 2015 年内调整了满城县、清苑县、徐水县,张家口市在 2016 年内调整了宣化县、万全县、崇礼县。目前撤县设区的热潮在全国城市蔓延,东中西部都有许多城市进行了撤县设区,其中发展程度较高的长三角、珠三角和京津冀地区的城市更是进行过多轮撤县设区调整。全国城市撤县设区调整这样的盛况空前也让我们对产生这一现象的原因感到好奇,即撤县设区到底影响了什么,能让地方政府如此热衷呢?

  面对这样的形势,研究界也一直好奇地方政府热衷于推动撤县设区的理由,现有的研究纷纷以撤县设区的政策影响效果来推断撤县设区兴起的理由。纵观整个对撤县设区改革的动因探讨也可以分为前后两个阶段,前期(2001—2010 年)学界对撤县设区的定义主要集中在城市政区调整方面,同时直接观察到撤县设区带来的城市辖区空间的扩张效果(张艺烁,2016;李开宇,2007;张京祥,2007),提出了第一个城市选择撤县设区的动因论——城市空间需求动因论——中心城市高度发展下剩余发展空间的缺乏引致的对扩张新发展空间的渴求。尽管这是一个可以解释地方政府推动撤县设区调整的角度,但是大量的研究发现撤县设区之后城市的区域融合缓慢、市区政府规划衔接分离、市与新区发展独立、市县体制滞留等现实(李开宇,2009;张蕾等,2007;罗小龙等,2010),似乎又表明城市政府对于新空间的开发和吸收并如何上心,以至于人们对通过撤县设区获得城市新发展空间的动机说产生了怀疑。

  近些年(2011-2015 年),学者看到了撤县设区下更本质的调整和改变——市县管理模式转变为市区管理模式下城市和新区两地政府的权能调整。而城市政府通过撤县设区将上下级关系中独立性较高的县转化为作为辅助型政区存在的市辖区,实现了大量的权力和资源的集中。所以这一阶段的研究得到了另外一个政策影响观点,即撤县设区能够实现市级政府权力和资源的集中,而这个政策效果——集权诱惑动因论才是撤县设区如此受到城市政府推崇的原因(高祥荣,2015;肖立辉,2012)。尤其在我国长期以来的分权政策背景下,例如取消“市管县”,推行“撤县设市(1983-1997)”,开展“省直管县(2000 年左右-2012)”等改革与调整使得在省、市、县这三级政府中市级政府的权力和资源受到了约束,而撤县设区调整似乎是市级政府难得的一次集权调整机会,所以在这种情形下城市政府集中权力和资源的目的推动了撤县设区的发展。目前撤县设区下的集权改革本质被很多学者所认同。正是基于撤县设区带来了市县关系的改变,实现了市级政府权力和资源集中的这一理论观点,不少研究者以财政能力和财政资源作为撤县设区市级政府追求的权力和资源的代表,研究撤县设区是否真的实现了市级政府的财政能力上升,探究是否实现权力和资源的集中是市级政府热衷于撤县设区的原因。然而大量的研究结果只是表明在撤县设区的集权调整下,处于被集权地位的县(区)政府的财政能力确实受到了显著的削弱(卢盛峰,2017;张莉莉等,2018),而处于集权优势拥有主动调整动机的市级政府的财政能力和资源并没有被发现有显著的增强。所以从这一点来看市级政府集权诱惑的撤县设区动因论虽然在理论推导上成立,但是没有得到实证的支持。

  所以结合整个研究历程来看,撤县设区研究经过了从城市区划调整的现象探讨到市县两级政府权力调整的本质分析,从政策效果研究到动因理论预测,研究者一直想找到推动撤县设区热潮的真正原因,但是从目前的研究脉络来看似乎并没有找到一个能够在理论推导、政策影响结果上都能契合的动因推测理论。

 【由于本篇文章为硕士论文,如需全文请点击底部下载全文链接】

  1.2 研究的创新点和主要内容
  1.3 研究的方法和技术路线

  二 文献综述

  2.1 关于撤县设区定义的文献探究
  2.2 撤县设区的动因探究
  2.3 土地财政作为撤县设区集权结果代表的原因
  2.4 文献小结

  三 撤县设区发展和城市土地财政发展的典型事实

  3.1 撤县设区的发展趋势
  3.2 城市政府土地财政资源的发展现状
  3.3 撤县设区的土地财政变化

  四 城市政府利用撤县设区调整影响土地财政的策略分析

  4.1 撤县设区调整对土地财政资源的影响
  4.2 撤县设区调整对城市土地价格的影响
  4.3 撤县设区调整对城市土地财政影响的总结

  五 撤县设区调整影响土地财政的实证分析

  5.1 撤县设区调整对城市土地出让收入的实证分析
  5.2 撤县设区带来主城区价格影响的机制分析
  5.3 实证总结

  六 文章总结

  6.1 结论

  参考文献

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